KW: Jim Rickards writes…..The time for warnings of a global slowdown is over. The slowdown is here. Over the past few months, we’ve highlighted warnings of slower growth, excessive debt and the potential for a new market crash coming from prominent officials in the international monetary system, including Christine Lagarde of the IMF, economists from the BIS and preeminent academics like Larry Summers of Harvard and many others.
Now, one Reuters report is showing that the slowdown is not just coming but that it has already arrived. The report below indicates that global trade volumes are in decline, air freight volumes in Hong Kong were down 5% in December and certain economies outside the U.S. (Germany, France, Japan and Italy) showed negative growth or material slowing in the second half of 2018.
The time to brace for a recession by reducing allocations to risky assets (stocks, corporate debt, emerging markets) and increasing allocations to cash is now. Here’s the proof.
GLOBAL-ECONOMY/KEMP (COLUMN):COLUMN-Global economy is headed for recession: Kemp